The eBook will go out tomorrow at 12 PM my time, so if you haven’t subscribed via email – do so now via the form in the sidebar. Remember, ONLY my email subscribers get this! 
This has been a trend for some time now, but it has especially come to the fore in contests with Blogging Idol – when the incentive is so great, people are bound to be tempted to cheat. The problem is that people cheating not only dishonestly fools their readers into thinking that they are better bloggers than they really are, but also scams advertisers (should they take them) into paying more to advertise to readers that don’t really exist. Jim at The Net Fool wrote up an interesting and controversial (one of my favourite types ) of post talking about how the competition was flawed, mainly because people were gaming it.
If someone’s faking their statistics, obviously you should not trust them. But how do you know? Here’s a few tips.
First off, I’d like to introduce you guys to one of my favourite tools in the blogosphere; that is Blog Perfume’s Feed Analysis tool. What it allows you to do is take any feed and run it through the tool, giving you statistics such as current feed count, level of growth and various other things. Some of the statistics are foolish, for example the one showing you what level of subscribers you’d have if your blog increased by the same percentage every month, but the other charts it provides are pretty helpful, especially if you’re a stat-whore.
Above is the chart for TUK. The huge dive is when Hostican f’d up and this blog died for ten days. As you can see, this is a regular feed chart – drops when Feedburner forgets Google Reader subscribers; hits more than subscribers most of the time.
Let’s look at two of the blogs that are currently being challenged at Blogging Idol for faking their counts.
This is the blog that I believe is currently leading the competition.
This is the blog that is currently is second place.
And this is a chart of a personal favourite blogger of mine (note, sarcasm), that is Alan Johnson of The Rating Blog.
Now, the first way of determining whether someone is faking their statistics, is by checking their hits / subscriber ratio.
If there are more subscribers than hits for the majority of the time, that should raise an immediate red flag.
Why? Simply because real people need to visit your blog to subscribe; they cannot subscribe without seeing your content, and even if they do they will probably need to see your content a few times before opting in to receive posts via a reader or email. So if there are more subscribers than hits… something’s amiss.
Blog Perfume’s tool is one of the most reliable around, and if you use it coupled with the second reasoning (see below) you can be pretty sure whether someone is faking their feed count.
Another thing you can use to glean from that chart whether subscribers are legit or not is looking at the drop levels.
As I mentioned earlier, everyone knows that Feedburner occasionally wipes out a chunk of a bloggers subscriber count – you can see this in the TUK chart, as well as in all the charts above.
When the subscriber count tends to near evaporate during one of those drops, you should be suspicious. In the above cases, up to 95% of the subscriber count vanishes for the three blogs when Feedburner has its glitches.
Why is this suspicious? Simply because it is unlikely that 95% of readers will be ALL subscribed the same way. For TUK, it’s half spread out between email subscribers and the other half spread out between various readers (as you can see in the charts).
The second way of checking out whether someone is faking it… is Alexa.
Now, on it’s own; Alexa is grossly inaccurate and should not be used as a measurement. However, when you combine it with the above factor, and it shows that a website is getting relatively little traffic… that’s another red flag. You can also use various other statistics checkers like My Stats Counter etc.
Last but not least, is using common sense and looking at the blog in question that you think may be faking their count.
Subscribers do not tend to subscribe of their own accord; they need a reason, or a killer post to make them do so.
One of the front runners in Blogging Idol saw a 250+ RSS increase since the start of the month, which was a 33% increase on his original count (750 odd)… that’s with him having made one post in the last two weeks.
It’s not like the post was a revolutionary one either; only one verifiable person (that is one person with a linked website) commented on it.
You see, a subscriber is far more active than your standard hit to a website – a subscriber has actually taken an active interest in opting into receiving daily updates. Meaning that they’re interested enough in your content to do so.
When someone has 1k+ subscribers, you’d guess that they’d get at least one, or two comments on posts? The leader in the competition (stats taken from Jim’s post) had fourteen consecutive posts without a SINGLE comment!
Of course, some people can fake comments too – like Alan Johnson is. You look at his second last post, you see 22 comments; you think, without further analysis that those readers must be real, right?
However, let’s analyse his Top Commentators a little more. There are fifteen of them.
The highest commentator is him, with 110 comments. I believe that is all during this month.
The next highest commentator is someone commenting with the URL http://www.linux.com – for real?
Seven commentators have no website (which is suspicious, especially in this niche – most people have a website of their own).
Two people have links that go to http://nowebsite and http://comingsoon.
Four people link to websites which appear to be legit ones.
That’s 4/15 verifiable commentators. As opposed to TUK, where everyone out of the top ten has a website that is linked to.
Suspicious? You betcha. Outright fraud? I’ll leave that to you guys to decide.
I’ve tried to put out posts that help + generate discussion. Do let me know what you guys think about this and the last one talking about how much of a failure make money online blogs are. Cheers guys
July 12th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
dude! good thought! good analysis especially about that top commentators list
yea i meant, a linux.com guy? he must be famous lol
Jacky Supit’s last blog post..I Need Help
[Reply]
July 12th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
TheNetFool also touched upon this, in his article saying how Blogging Idol constest was flawed. Especially suspicious is Rome Uy’s site, whose subscription rate increased very exponentially. Also consider that it’s a gaming blog that has news usually recycled from more famous gaming blogs (think Kotaku or Joystiq). I don’t want to put down the participants that are legitimately increasing their RSS subsciptions, but I gotta agree with The Net Fool – the basis of winning the contest is easily exploitable, to the point where it’s not about who the “best blogger” is anymore.
JustChris’s last blog post..A new theme (soon) and a new computer
[Reply]
July 12th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
oh and sorry, just one more thing.
this is what i am always saying about writing a bait post. never put links to the “victims” sites hahah, never let the readers go.
btw, alexa is more about how popular your site on mmo site for me, not how many traffic you got
imho anyway
Jacky Supit’s last blog post..I Need Help
[Reply]
July 12th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
It’s me again
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=nds+games&btnG=Google+Search
Check the SERPs. somewhere in the 1st page incomeforeveryone.info is ranked. Leads to this post
http://incomeforeveryone.info/gaming/download-nintendo-ds-lite-games-free
that post leads to this post
http://romeuy.com/handhelds/free-nintendo-ds-nds-lite-games-download
equals = subscribers
SEO is the key 
Thanks!
[Reply]
July 12th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
This is just dispicable how these stupid people would do this! Thank for showing me Jason, now I can tell if they are faking, plus sometimes from their energy you can grasp that thought, but to prove it, maybe to Dan running the contest, then we can use these way to figure it out.
Also, don’t the subscribers going up continuously on that one, going up ay practically the same angle look suspicious? I thought you would mention that.
I am surprised that people would do this – fake subscribers – I had no idea they wanted $800 so much. All they are doing is hurting themselves and their real readers, and from now on we know that they are people that can’t be trusted. Wouldn’t it take more time and effort to think up stories and make fake stat pictures then it would to really persuade readers to subscribe?
Nathaniel’s last blog post..Birthday Time: July 11th
[Reply]
July 12th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
Great….great post Jason. I especially like how you correlated all the data together to draw you conclusion. There are definitely some things here that I had not though of, like that 95% drop thing….makes a lot of sense.
Keep it up man, you promised more great content, and you’re bringing it! Even though I personally never thought your content was lacking…
JK Swopes’s last blog post..Secret Marketing Strategy 19 Exposed
[Reply]
July 12th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Hey TUK great advice. Certainly, there are people cheating the contest, and other ones who are spending money on advertising or in contest.
And as you said, in the competition there are counters which has increased exponentially, without reason! I could not find comments or contests in those blogs…
Mr. Javo’s last blog post..By: Blog for Beginners
[Reply]
July 12th, 2008 at 7:22 pm
nice wrap up; one thing not to underestimate though is ‘viral subscribers’ ie subscribers brought in by viral social media…these tend to stay for a while and disappear later…for example on one of my experiment sites i did a week of hard viral trafficking and hit 7k+ hits each day with an average of 40 people subscribing, getting my total 284 new subscribers in a week.
As my experiment is over and i prob see this disapate soon as previous test have shown they last till the wave crashes 2-3 weeks unless you keep content constant and fresh…i.e. my point the competition is a great form of targeted viral traffic and exponential increases are expected during this period…what matters is how many survive.
Donace’s last blog post..Java and HTML colour code list
[Reply]
July 12th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Be waiting on the ebook mate!
G of Slashdox’s last blog post..Rockers today rock the house! Hope it falls on their faces.
[Reply]
July 12th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
Without a doubt, they are cheating. The evidence against them is overwhelming. Can’t you go to Daniel who runs Blogging Idol and get them kicked out? Honestly, it’s not fair to you.
Faint’s last blog post..How To Make Your Own Beer.
[Reply]
July 12th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
That’s not really accurate and I could easily fool it.
The only way for Daniel to actually see if people are subscribing is for the winner to give Daniel the list of all the subscribers and for Daniel to e-mail random subscribers confirming their subscription.
Germz’s last blog post..Comment Kahuna is a useful little tool.
[Reply]
July 12th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Those fake websites are pretty funny. I don’t think faking it is going to get you very far on anything in life – blogging or otherwise.
Chelle’s last blog post..Am I Losing My Touch?
[Reply]
July 12th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
@Germz – that’s one hell of a job but it’s worth it. E-mail all subscribers and only those who reply are valid subscribers.
Jehzeel Laurente’s last blog post..I Wasn’t Able To Get Online Because Of This!
[Reply]
July 12th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
@Jehzeel, I’m not saying that they’ll have to e-mail all of them just random ones. By e-mailing random people you ensure that the subscribers are real without having to spend all your day sending e-mails.
Germz’s last blog post..Make money online by hiring programmers.
[Reply]
July 13th, 2008 at 12:44 am
Proving this would be difficult and time consuming, but not impossible. I wish people would realize that they get out of life what they put in. Cheating does nothing to raise a persons quality of life.
Looking forward to the ebook tomorrow.
B Carter’s last blog post..Finding My Happy Place
[Reply]
July 13th, 2008 at 1:23 am
Hi, was wondering if you’d like to exchange links with me?
If yes, please leave your blog url as a comment at:
http://bigmoneylist.blogspot.com/
I’ll link to you first, then when you have time link back k?
Thanks, Michael
BTW–I’m michaelwong38 on digg. If ever you want something dugg, just send me a shout anytime.
michael wong’s last blog post..Belated Thanks to Everyone
[Reply]
July 13th, 2008 at 2:54 am
thanks for pointing out the tool jason! The blogging perfume tool made me worry about my blog/site thuogh. my hits do not even compliment my subscribers
my own chart actually looks funny. dang! anyway, i do agree that this competition isn’t turning out good.. but i actually joined to be motivated. oh well.
[Reply]
July 13th, 2008 at 3:52 am
lol yeh, thats true.
we can easily catch fakers.
Nice read.
Dating’s last blog post..Dating – Winning Her Heart
[Reply]
July 13th, 2008 at 7:10 am
Surprising that inspite of the risk of being caught, you still get people that cheat? Too much…
Mo’s last blog post..Get Traffic By Thinking Outside Of The Box
[Reply]
July 13th, 2008 at 8:19 am
Gah manm you should be a net detective! lol
I’m still waiting to hear someone explain how they have more subscribers than visitors over a time period. Any fakers tried to explain that one yet?
[Reply]
July 13th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
I won’t talk about the faking in the Blogging Idol contest. I knew these things will happen. So I didn’t participate in it.
By the way Blog Perfume’s Feed Analysis tool is quite a handy tool.
Jason I see you have become more popular. You are getting 15-20 comments on each blog post. I do not know what all things you have done. I was pretty busy migrating my blog.
Agent 001’s last blog post..Help Me Choose a Wordpress Theme
[Reply]
July 13th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
@ Agent 001 – I didn’t join in the contest either, though I am still trying to follow along and gain RSS subscribers, but since faking happens in contests like these, I decided not to actually join in. Similar huh?
Nathaniel’s last blog post..Linking Rules
[Reply]
July 13th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
[...] How To Tell When Someone Is Faking It – The University Kid [...]
July 14th, 2008 at 1:37 am
Awesome analysis… definitely liked the graphs that you showed to prove your case. Keep up the awesome work!
Jim’s last blog post..Creating an Effective Link Bait Post – How a Rant Can Drive Traffic and Comments
[Reply]
July 14th, 2008 at 2:54 am
Great post Jason, I did one just like it a couple of days ago, be sure to check it out!
What I Think Of Blogging Idol And Its Contestants
Rajaie AlKorani’s last blog post..What I Think Of Blogging Idol And Its Contestants
[Reply]
July 14th, 2008 at 3:20 am
[...] wrote post about How To Tell When Someone Is Faking It, and it shows how you can tell fake stats. I would write more about this is I could, but sleep [...]
July 14th, 2008 at 7:32 am
[...] The University Kid – How To Tell When Someone Is Faking It [...]
July 14th, 2008 at 8:52 am
Great post. I was shocked to see so many bloggers manipulating their earnings page, subscriber count and traffic estimates.
Next time i would rather not eadily believe in statistics.
regards
Thinkjayant @ Smartblogtips
TJ @ Smartblogtips’s last blog post..TinyURL gets a makeup, adds custom alias
[Reply]
July 14th, 2008 at 10:02 pm
Hey Jason,
You know where I stand on this situation because we’ve talked over Yahoo about these things.
But I can fully vouch for Rome. As for the other guy, well, I have no idea who he is.
Jay
Jay’s last blog post..I Am Willing to Help But Please Do Not Push Me
[Reply]
July 15th, 2008 at 4:59 am
This is great Ive been checking every blog that I read just out of curiosity. These posts are what keep me coming back to tuk and as far as the blogging idol competition goes I wanted to keep my mouth shut untill others started making noise, while the creator of the contest is legit and the idea for the contest is great I think what thenetfool.com outlined about moderating the entrants would have made the credibility much better. This being said I really do not think I could have had a real chance. I wont like my stats are important to me and raising them as well, but as I learned from the contest I held you really should let your content do the selling.
Maybe blogging Idol two will learn from this experience. Keep up the good work and informative posts.
Big Ben Patton’s last blog post..Time Management Makes Life Better
[Reply]
July 16th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
In life you cannot fake it to make it…why should online be any different?
Ryan McLean’s last blog post..Win a Nintendo Wii
[Reply]
August 6th, 2008 at 10:26 am
[...] d’un blogueur qui a triché avec son compteur et a été dénoncé publiquement sur le blog The University Kid. Vous verrez que le retour de bâton est sévère puisque cela se solde par la fermeture du [...]
August 6th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
[...] but just put up a fake image. In a niche where people know all about feed counts and how to tell if someone is faking it… how stupid does BMO think the rest of us are? They were found out pretty quickly, by a [...]
August 7th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Wow great article, I will have to look closer at the blogs I’m checking out as now that you know the signs it’s pretty apparent to spot the cheats!
BlogSavvy’s last blog post..Shut up an Blog.
[Reply]
September 12th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
Thanks for information..:)
[Reply]
December 5th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
Nice looking at this guide I realize how many people can easily fake their traffic and subscribers, so I will be looking out for this.
[Reply]
May 27th, 2010 at 7:11 am
Hmm that was weird, my comment got eaten. Anyway I desired to say that it’s good to realize that someone else also mentioned this as I experienced trouble finding the same info elsewhere. This was the first location that told me the answer. Thanks.
[Reply]